ETS2 and the diesel price: dates, cost per litre and freight contracts

ETS2 start date and legal basis

ETS2 becomes fully operational in 2028. Regulation (EU) 2026/667 of 11 March 2026 moved the start from 2027 to 2028. The European Parliament approved the change on 10 February 2026 and the Council on 5 March 2026. The regulation entered into force on 7 April 2026. The change is part of the EU’s 2040 climate law.

Under the delay rules in Article 30k of Directive 2003/87/EC, fuel suppliers surrender allowances for their 2028 emissions by 31 May 2029. Some steps started earlier. Since 1 January 2025, fuel suppliers need a greenhouse gas emissions permit and monitor the CO2 of the fuel they release. They report it by 30 April of the next year. Early auctions of ETS2 allowances start in 2027, under Delegated Regulation (EU) 2026/787. ETS2 allowances will have a market price before 2028.

ETS2 cost per litre of diesel

At 45 EUR per tonne of CO2, ETS2 would add about 12 cents to a litre of diesel before VAT. The figure is an illustration. It assumes that fuel suppliers add their full allowance cost to the price. German standard values for fuel emissions give 2.68 kg of CO2 per litre of fossil diesel.

The German regulation on fuel emission reports (EBeV 2030) gives three values for diesel. The density is 0.845 tonnes per 1,000 litres. The heating value is 42.8 GJ per tonne, and the emission factor is 0.074 tonnes of CO2 per GJ. Multiplied together, 1,000 litres of diesel emit 2.676 tonnes of CO2.

The table shows the cost at three CO2 prices. 45 EUR is the ETS2 safeguard level. 55 and 65 EUR are the lowest and highest German national CO2 price for fuels in 2026. On 15 October 2026, the Bundestag passed a bill that keeps the same range in 2027. The cost grows in a straight line. Each extra 10 EUR per tonne adds about 2.7 cents per litre.

Fuel use differs by truck, load and route, so the table shows the cost per 1,000 litres. A carrier can multiply it by the litres a truck uses on a route.

How the carbon cost reaches the diesel price

Fuel suppliers carry the ETS2 obligation, and truck operators do not buy allowances. The regulated entity is usually the company that pays excise duty when fuel is released for consumption. From 2028, that company must cover each tonne of CO2 in the fuel with one allowance. Carriers pay the cost when suppliers add it to the diesel price.

ETS2 covers fuel for road transport and buildings, and fuel in energy and industry outside the existing EU ETS. Biomass that meets the EU sustainability criteria has an emission factor of zero. In diesel with sustainable biodiesel, only the fossil share needs allowances.

The 45 EUR price safeguard

In the ETS2 rules, 45 EUR per tonne is the level that starts a release of extra allowances. If the average auction price stays above it for two months in a row, the ETS2 market stability reserve releases extra allowances. The market price can still go higher. The 45 EUR is in 2020 prices and is adjusted for inflation.

Directive 2003/87/EC releases 20 million allowances when that condition is met, until 31 December 2029. A new decision raises the release to 40 million allowances. The European Parliament approved it on 15 September 2026, and the Council adopted it on 9 October 2026. The decision applies 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal. On 19 October 2026, it was not yet in force.

In its conclusions of 15 and 16 October 2026, the European Council asked the Commission to update its assessment of all impacts of ETS2, in particular its design and safeguards.

Freight contracts for 2027 and 2028

A freight contract signed in 2026 or 2027 can still run after 1 January 2028, when ETS2 adds a carbon cost to diesel. Shippers who agree rates for 2027 and 2028 should agree in writing how a change in fuel cost changes the price. A fuel clause and a review date make the price change clear to both sides.

At RNJ Transport, our own MAN TGX trucks mostly run full loads between Lithuania and Sweden. On other lanes, such as the Netherlands and Belgium to Lithuania, we work with checked partner carriers. For every load, you get one contact person and one invoice. If you plan regular loads for 2027 and 2028, ask us how the price for your lane treats fuel.

Check three points before you sign a contract that covers 2028.

• Fuel clause. Link fuel changes to a published diesel price index. Record the index, the base price and its date, how often you review the price, and the share of fuel in the rate.
• Contract length. For a fixed rate that runs past 1 January 2028, ask whether the price already includes ETS2, or agree a review date in January 2028.
• How the quote treats fuel. Ask whether fuel is inside the rate or charged as a separate surcharge, and which diesel price the quote uses.

ETS2 dates to keep

The table lists the ETS2 dates that matter for fuel costs and freight contracts, with the legal source for each. The EU can still change the rules. We checked the dates on 19 October 2026.